Artemis II and the Return to Cislunar Space

Artemis II and the Return to Cislunar Space

Humanity launched out of orbit for the first time in more than fifty years on April 1st, 2026, as part of NASA's Artemis II program, when four astronauts flew around the Moon and travelled farther away from the Earth than ever before in human history, breaking the record previously set by Apollo 13 (1970). The mission was completed on April 10th. The event was covered widely by numerous media outlets across many platforms, but the much more significant aspect of this event is the direction for the future.

Jared Isaacman, NASA Administrator, stated: "The Artemis II mission is the beginning of something far greater than a single mission; this milestone signifies our return to the Moon. We're not just going back to visit; we're going back to establish a permanent presence on the Moon, and we will also use the Artemis missions as a platform to help pave the way for future astronomical discoveries."

The World Economic Forum reports that the roadmap for upcoming missions is quite aggressive. For example, Artemis III, set to launch in mid 2027, will be the first time that astronauts will be docking with SpaceX's Starship human landing system (HLS) and Blue Origin's landers using the International Space Station (ISS) as a platform for these tests. Artemis IV will be the first time since Apollo 17 that a crew will land on the Moon (expected to take place in early 2028).

The Artemis IV mission in early 2028 is planned to initiate the establishment of a permanent lunar base. Before this, within the calendar year, NASA plans to complete at least one lunar surface landing per year. According to Deloitte, a crucial difference between Artemis and the Apollo program is how the two initiatives approach the commercial structure of the program. The Apollo program represented a government-run initiative that used support from the private sector to create government-driven end products. In contrast, Artemis relies on a public-private partnership between NASA and private entities. Currently, over 2,700 companies are supporting Artemis' prime commercial partners (Aerojet Rocketdyne, Axiom Space, Boeing, Blue Origin, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, SpaceX, etc.) in 47 states. According to Seeking Alpha, the Commercial Lunar Payload Services program is also supporting commercial delivery of science and technology payloads on a contract model.

Building on this already enormous project, next comes the projected figures for ten years out. According to the Global Innovation Hub from the World Economic Forum, the global space economy was predicted to grow from around 350 billion in 2018 to around 630 billion by 2025, with $490 billion of that belonging to the commercial sector. In the United States alone, these projections will result in nearly 400,000 jobs in the United States. Additionally, the World Economic Forum further projects that the so-called "space economy" will reach over $1 trillion by 2030. For lunar surface economic activities from 2026 through 2050, prices could reach between $93.9 billion and $127 billion, as we will see good growth on the lunar surface in the 2040s due to commercial markets and an increase in the frequency of missions to the moon. Additionally, the most significant "next operating opportunity" for everybody in the near term isn't going to come from mining or tourism, but rather from logistics to the Moon. Any systems or equipment needed to support human activity on the lunar surface will correlate to acquisition contracts. There are companies currently getting investments from a new generation of venture capital firms that are specifically investing in foundational systems that support lunar operations, versus the actual spacecraft themselves. This includes propulsion technologies, advanced energy systems, aerospace manufacturing, and communications infrastructure. Companies like Zeno Power are designing systems that can provide enough power for the two-week period during the lunar night when solar (sun) energy is unavailable.

X-Bow Systems is employing manufacturing techniques to modify how solid propellant rockets are created. Even though these changes are not necessarily groundbreaking changes, they are likely to be able to withstand the test of time; this is very similar to selling shovels and picks during the gold rush.

The resource that is the most sought-after by both nations and private companies on the Moon is water/ice; this is almost exclusively located near the Moon's South Pole. If water/ice can be obtained and processed efficiently and sustainably, it can be converted into fuel and oxygen which would provide the Moon with the ability to create enough fuel/oxygen to be self supporting for refueling deep space operations; this will allow NASA, as well as commercial space companies, to reduce the cost of missions beyond Low Earth Orbit and open cislunar (the area of space between the Earth and the Moon's orbit) to commercial markets.

Long-term investment in this type of program is largely speculative; however, much less so than it was five years ago. The competitive nature adds a decent amount of strength to the business case. China has been developing their own lunar program and has announced that they intend to establish its own base on the south pole of the Moon.

The Artemis Accords (a framework for the international governance of space developed by NASA) has been signed by 61 members; through the guidance provided in the Accords with respect to the rights to resources and territorial claims to the Moon, the United States and the 60 other signer nations are trying to create an environment in which all future competitors can base their plans for the Moon on current U.S. law before they arrive on the Moon.

NASA expects Artemis to install a base for more commercial activity on the Moon by both national and private space agencies. The first to have an operational presence at the lunar south pole will have a competitive advantage in developing a lunar economy.

The Artemis program is largely a government-funded infrastructure project; this stage is similar to Apollo in that the technology and manufacturing capabilities developed will provide benefits beyond the direct application of space-related jobs. Similar to Apollo, the technology developed for Artemis, including life support systems, automation, and materials, is expected to be applied across industries such as energy, healthcare, and industrial manufacturing (J.P. Morgan).

The Artemis II flight was a demonstration mission; it showed that humanity can operate beyond Earth's orbit again. The economic outcomes of this demonstration are not yet fully understood.